Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11Adames grounded out to shortstop, Wiemer scored, Contreras to second.6–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 10France hit sacrifice fly to center, Wong scored.5–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 10Turang grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Mitchell scored, Caratini out at second.5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Adames homered to right center (384 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 3La Stella singled to left, Raleigh scored, Kelenic to third.3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Suárez scored, Raleigh to third.3–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Raleigh doubled to right, Rodríguez scored and France scored, Suárez to third.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Adames doubled to left, Yelich scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Yelich singled to right, Miller scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Yelich homered to left (360 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -108
- MIL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +19 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +24 Elo | SEA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.