Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tellez to home on error, Voit to first on fielding error by shortstop Crawford, Anderson to second.7–3
- 9Tellez to home on error, Voit to first on fielding error by shortstop Crawford, Anderson to second.7–3
- 9Tellez to home on error, Voit to first on fielding error by shortstop Crawford, Anderson to second.7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 8Rodríguez homered to right center (395 feet).6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 7Contreras singled to center, Yelich scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Turang homered to right center (398 feet).5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6France doubled to center, Crawford scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Anderson singled to left, Adames scored, Contreras to second.4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Raleigh homered to right center (392 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Wiemer grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Voit scored, Miller out at second.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Miller singled to center, Anderson scored, Voit to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Voit doubled to left, Tellez scored, Anderson to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 47%
- Fair odds
- SEA -105
- MIL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −22 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +24 Elo | MIL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 5–515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.