St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kelenic hit sacrifice fly to left, Hernández scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 4Hernández homered to center (414 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Kelenic singled to center, Hernández scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Walker doubled to right, Arenado scored and Contreras scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -111
- STL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +22 Elo | SEA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 15th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 5–821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.