Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rowdy TellezBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kelenic singled to center, France scored, Hernández to second, Suárez to third.5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Tellez singled to center, Voit scored and Turang scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Turang singled to left, Anderson scored and Winker scored, Turang to second, Voit to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 7Voit singled to right, Contreras scored, Anderson to second, Winker to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Rodríguez homered to left center (385 feet), Caballero scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Fair odds
- SEA -105
- MIL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | MIL: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +3 Elo | SEA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–4 | Road vs home | 5–720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–0 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.