St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake WoodfordPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler RogersPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sabol homered to center (428 feet), Yastrzemski scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 9Yastrzemski doubled to center, Pederson scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Goldschmidt singled to left. Edman scored, O'Neill scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8O'Neill doubled to right, Carlson scored, Edman to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Yastrzemski homered to right (396 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Edman homered to center (408 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Estrada scored on fielding error by center fielder Carlson.0–1
- 2Estrada scored on fielding error by center fielder Carlson.0–1
- 2Estrada stole second. Throwing error by Contreras, Estrada to third. Fielding error by Carlson, Estrada scored.0–1
- 2Estrada scored on fielding error by center fielder Carlson.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Fair odds
- SF -111
- STL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | STL: Jake Woodford: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: John Brebbia (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SF +12 Elo | SF 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Road vs home | 5–621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.