St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul DeJongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting1-4
- Logan WebbPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goldschmidt grounded into fielder's choice to third, Edman scored, Nootbaar out at second.6–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 8DeJong homered to left center (369 feet), Carlson scored.5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 8Carlson doubled to left, Arenado scored.3–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 7Edman reached on infield single to second, DeJong scored, O'Neill to third.2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7Burleson homered to right (385 feet).1–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +28 Elo | SF 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 7–613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–3 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.