Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schwarber scored on error, Realmuto safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Bregman.3–4
- 8Schwarber scored on error, Realmuto safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Bregman.3–4
- 8Schwarber scored on error, Realmuto safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Bregman.3–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Tucker singled to left, Bregman scored, Alvarez to second.2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Clemens homered to left center (345 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Meyers homered to left center (407 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Maldonado hit a ground rule double, Hensley scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Realmuto homered to left (348 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1J. Abreu grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Peña scored, Alvarez out at second, Bregman to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -110
- PHI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +3 | PHI: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · HOU: Jose Urquidy: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +14 Elo | HOU 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 17th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 6–922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–0 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.