Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Marsh singled to center, Sosa scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pache doubled to right, Sosa scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Peña homered to right center (402 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Schwarber homered to right (407 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +33 Elo | HOU 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–8 | Road vs home | 6–720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.