Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bohm singled to left, Marsh scored, Realmuto to second.5–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 8Realmuto reached on infield single to second, Castellanos scored, Marsh to second.5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5Castellanos singled to center, Stott scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 3Schwarber singled to left, Sosa scored, Stott to second.5–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 2Rodríguez homered to center (404 feet).5–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 2Crawford homered to center (420 feet), Raleigh scored, Pollock scored and Wong scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 1Castellanos homered to right center (392 feet), Stott scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Fair odds
- PHI -110
- SEA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +7 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +10 Elo | PHI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 6–512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.