Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jarred KelenicBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cave singled to center, Bohm scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Caballero hit sacrifice fly to center, Raleigh scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Bohm grounded into fielder's choice to first, Schwarber scored, Realmuto out at second, Castellanos to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Hernández homered to left (378 feet), Suárez scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Sosa homered to left center (421 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Crawford reached on infield single to second, Caballero scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Kelenic homered to center (424 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -113
- SEA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +17 | SEA: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +32 Elo | PHI 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 6–47th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.