Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis GarciaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-3
- Drew RasmussenPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Meyers reached on infield single to shortstop, Julks scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Julks doubled to left, J. Abreu scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5J. Abreu doubled to left, Tucker scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Tucker singled to center, Peña scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Peña doubled to left, Dubón scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- HOU +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +15 | HOU: Luis Garcia: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +69 Elo | TB 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 6.81st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 2.81st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +4.01st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 14–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.