Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rays- Luke RaleyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Jiménez doubled to center, Benintendi scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Ramírez homered to right center (385 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Díaz grounded out to third, Bethancourt scored, Díaz out at first.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Raley homered to right center (442 feet), Paredes scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.4 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +62 Elo | TB 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 6.91st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 2.91st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +4.01st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 12–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–2 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.