Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Arozarena singled to right, Bruján scored, Franco to second.3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Sheets homered to right (392 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Arozarena singled to left, Díaz scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Grandal homered to center (428 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Jiménez homered to left center (434 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Arozarena homered to left center (384 feet), Díaz scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Fair odds
- TB -125
- CHW +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 5.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +25 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 1.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +76 Elo | TB 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 7.01st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 2.91st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +4.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 11–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.