Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Rays- Harold RamirezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9B. Lowe homered to right center (374 feet), Bruján scored.7–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 37–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 9Bethancourt homered to right center (371 feet).7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 4Díaz singled to right, Ramírez scored, Bethancourt to third.7–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 4Jiménez homered to left center (395 feet).7–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 3Colás scored on Criswell wild pitch, Sosa to second on wild pitch by Criswell, Andrus to third on wild pitch by Criswell.6–4
- 3Colás scored on Criswell wild pitch, Sosa to second on wild pitch by Criswell, Andrus to third on wild pitch by Criswell.6–4
- 3Sosa walked, Grandal scored, Andrus to second, Colás to third.5–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 45–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 3Andrus walked, Vaughn scored, Colás to second, Grandal to third.4–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 44–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 33–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 2Benintendi singled to left, Colás scored, Andrus to second.3–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 2Andrus singled to right, Burger scored, Colás to second.2–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- CHW +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −9 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TB: Calvin Faucher: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +54 Elo | TB 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 7.01st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 2.61st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +4.41st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 10–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.