Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Franco singled to center, Bethancourt scored, Díaz to second.3–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 6Paredes singled to left, Arozarena scored, Ramírez to second.3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 3Bethancourt singled to center, Paredes scored and Ramírez scored, J. Lowe to third.3–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 3J. Lowe reached on infield single to second, Franco scored, Paredes to second, Ramírez to third.3–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to right, Díaz scored, Franco to third.3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Peña homered to center (432 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Ramírez hit a ground rule double, Arozarena scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Arozarena tripled to left, Franco scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Bregman homered to left center (386 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -117
- HOU +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −2 | HOU: Jose Urquidy: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 6.81st of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 2.81st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +4.01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–3 | Road vs home | 13–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.