Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4
- Hunter BrownPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Rays- Manuel MargotBatting2-3
- Josh FlemingPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 1Peña scored on error, Bregman safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Franco, Tucker to second.1–0
- 1Peña scored on error, Bregman safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Franco, Tucker to second.1–0
- 1Peña scored on error, Bregman safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Franco, Tucker to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Fair odds
- TB -116
- HOU +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −17 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TB: Calvin Faucher: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +16 Elo | TB 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 6.51st of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 2.91st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +3.71st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 14–11st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.