Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Tom MurphyBatting2-3
- George KirbyPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Kody ClemensBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Matt StrahmPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 2Clemens singled to center, Castellanos scored, Clemens to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Fair odds
- PHI -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Matt Strahm: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +10 Elo | PHI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 7–57th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.