Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peña homered to left center (382 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 8Cave singled to center, Bohm scored, Clemens to third.6–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 8Bohm doubled to center, Marsh scored.5–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Clemens homered to right (389 feet), Realmuto scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to right, Marsh scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Castellanos homered to left (416 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Fair odds
- HOU -113
- PHI +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +39 Elo | HOU 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.07th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 6–822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.