San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mitch HanigerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cruz singled to right, Grisham scored and Machado scored, Soto to third.11–16
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–14
- 8Grisham doubled to center, Kim scored and Nola scored.11–14
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play11–14
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul11–14
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul11–14
- 8Pitch 5 : Automatic Ball 311–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 211–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul11–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–12
- 7Machado homered to right center (413 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.11–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–12
- 7Villar homered to left (434 feet).11–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging11–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul11–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 211–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–10
- 7Sabol homered to right center (436 feet), Haniger scored.10–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 210–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 110–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–10
- 5Machado homered to left center (442 feet).8–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–9
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to right (376 feet), Grisham scored.8–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 38–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 28–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–7
- 4Bogaerts homered to left center (455 feet).8–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–7
- 4Soto homered to center (448 feet).8–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 28–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Fair odds
- SD -102
- SF +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | 0 | SF: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +16 Elo | SD 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.