San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Brandon BielakPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wade Jr. homered to right (350 feet).3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7Julks singled to right, Tucker scored, Peña to third.2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 7Peña singled to right, Alvarez scored, Tucker to third.2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7J. Abreu grounded out to third, Bregman scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Bregman singled to right, Dubón scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Dubón doubled to right, Meyers scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Dubón singled to center, Meyers scored, Dubón to second, Maldonado to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pederson homered to right (399 feet), Wade Jr. scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1J. Abreu singled to center, Dubón scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Fair odds
- HOU -116
- SF +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | SF: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: Luis Garcia: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +39 Elo | HOU 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 7–920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.