San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Padres- Austin NolaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carpenter doubled to center, Bogaerts scored and Cronenworth scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 8Cronenworth singled to right, Soto scored, Bogaerts to third.4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Soto singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 5Nola homered to center (440 feet), Carpenter scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Yastrzemski singled to center, Conforto scored, Davis to second.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Haniger homered to left (460 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Davis homered to right (382 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Wade Jr. homered to right (394 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 49%
- Fair odds
- SD -101
- SF +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 4.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +2 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +6 Elo | SF 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 0–1 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.