Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Flores homered to left center (397 feet).4–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 5Pederson singled to center, Estrada scored and Stevenson scored, Pederson out stretching at second, Davis to third.4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Estrada reached on infield single to pitcher, Wisely scored, Stevenson to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5O. Miller hit sacrifice fly to center, Wiemer scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Taylor to home on throwing error by catcher Bart, Wiemer to third on error.3–2
- 5Taylor to home on throwing error by catcher Bart, Wiemer to third on error.3–2
- 5Taylor to home on throwing error by catcher Bart, Wiemer to third on error.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Davis homered to right (364 feet), Wade Jr. scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1O. Miller scored, Anderson picked off and caught stealing second.2–0
- 1O. Miller scored, Anderson picked off and caught stealing second.2–0
- 1Adames singled to right, Contreras scored, O. Miller to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 47%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −36 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Sean Manaea: team allows 1.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +21 Elo | MIL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.619th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 7–719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.