Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Trout homered to center (405 feet), Thaiss scored.5–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 8Trout homered to center (428 feet), Neto scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 5Caratini walked, Contreras scored, Anderson to second, Perkins to third.1–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 41–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Winker singled to left, Wiemer scored and Yelich scored, Contreras to second.1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Contreras walked, O. Miller scored, Yelich to second, Wiemer to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 41–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Trout hit sacrifice fly to left, Urshela scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Contreras doubled to left, Adames scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Adames singled to center, O. Miller scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Wiemer grounded out to shortstop, Caratini scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −11 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +18 Elo | MIL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 306–8 | Road vs home | 8–56th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–1 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.