Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Gio UrshelaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tellez singled to right, Contreras scored, Anderson to second.1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Urshela singled to right, Rendon scored, Drury to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Adames homered to left (406 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Fair odds
- MIL -117
- LAA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +16 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +57 Elo | MIL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 7–510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.