Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Rowdy TellezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Tellez homered to right (370 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Miller grounded out to second, Contreras scored, Miller out at first, Turang to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Yelich grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Miller scored, Wiemer out at third.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Torkelson singled to left, Báez scored, Haase to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Carpenter homered to right center (390 feet), Schoop scored and Rogers scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Fair odds
- MIL -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +3 | DET: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +42 Elo | MIL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.812th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–9 | Road vs home | 6–46th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.