Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Nick MatonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Greene grounded into fielder's choice to second, Haase scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Brosseau homered to center (410 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Maton homered to right (390 feet), Baddoo scored and Báez scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Contreras homered to center (410 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Fair odds
- MIL -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −5 | DET: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +32 Elo | MIL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 6–35th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.