Boston Red Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Brian AndersonBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Anderson homered to right (367 feet).12–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 212–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 112–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–4
- 8Yoshida homered to right (407 feet), Chang scored, Devers scored and Turner scored.12–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 8Turner walked, Wong scored, Devers to second, Chang to third.8–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 48–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 37–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 8Wong singled to center, Hernández scored and Duran scored, Wong to second.7–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Yoshida homered to right (374 feet).5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Turner homered to left center (388 feet).4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 7Wiemer scored on Ort wild pitch, Yelich to second on wild pitch by Ort.3–4
- 7Wiemer scored on Ort wild pitch, Yelich to second on wild pitch by Ort.3–4
- 5Adames hit sacrifice fly to center, Yelich scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Yelich singled to right. Wiemer scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Fair odds
- MIL -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +8 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +42 Elo | MIL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.64th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–5 | Road vs home | 6–22nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.