Boston Red Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Rowdy TellezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Yoshida doubled to center, Turner scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Duran reached on infield single to third, Casas scored, Refsnyder to second.4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Refsnyder singled to right, Hernández scored, Casas to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Turang singled to right, Contreras scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Tellez homered to right (362 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Yelich singled to left, Miller scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Verdugo homered to right (366 feet), Duran scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -116
- BOS +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +27 Elo | MIL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.84th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–4 | Road vs home | 5–12nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.