Boston Red Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett WhitlockPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Brewers- Rowdy TellezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Devers homered to right (416 feet), Turner scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Tellez grounded into double play, first to shortstop to pitcher, Yelich scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Yelich doubled to center, Perkins scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Chang homered to left (399 feet), Arroyo scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Tellez homered to center (412 feet), Yelich scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Anderson hit a ground rule double, Contreras scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Fair odds
- MIL -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +21 | BOS: Garrett Whitlock: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +44 Elo | MIL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.911th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.74th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 5–22nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.