Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting2-5
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Frazier scored on Englert wild pitch.1–2
- 10Frazier scored on Englert wild pitch.1–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 8Santander doubled to left, Mateo scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 8Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to right, Vierling scored, Haase to third.1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -116
- DET +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −2 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +25 Elo | BAL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +0.810th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 303–8 | Road vs home | 6–33rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–2 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.