Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Akil BaddooBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Victor CaratiniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wiemer homered to right center (383 feet).2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Rogers singled to left, Baddoo scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Baddoo doubled to left, Maton scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 3Caratini homered to right center (403 feet), Anderson scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Anderson singled to center, Winker scored and Tellez scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Tellez doubled to right, Yelich scored, Winker to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Fair odds
- MIL -116
- DET +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −1 | DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +34 Elo | MIL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +1.07th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 6–510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–0 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.