Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason MillerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ward singled to right, Urshela scored, Neto to second.3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6J. Diaz doubled to left, Rooker scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Langeliers homered to left center (426 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 1Urshela singled to right, Rengifo scored.1–4
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 1Rengifo singled to right, Drury scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Drury tripled to center, Trout scored and Rendon scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Peterson tripled to right, Noda scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 61%
- Fair odds
- LAA -122
- OAK +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 5.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +7 | OAK: Mason Miller: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +76 Elo | LAA 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 30th of 308.2 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.4 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–8 | Road vs home | 5–515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 2–2 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.