Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Drury homered to right center (380 feet), Renfroe scored.11–10
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–10
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 311–8
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking11–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 211–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul11–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 111–8
- 10Kemp singled to right, Noda scored.11–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–8
- 10Noda doubled to left, Langeliers scored and Peterson scored, Noda to third.10–8
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–8
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 310–8
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul8–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 28–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 9Rooker walked, Noda scored, Capel to second, Kemp to third.8–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 48–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 37–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 7Drury singled to center, Renfroe scored.7–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 6Neto doubled to left, Drury scored and Rengifo scored, Wallach to third.7–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 6Wallach singled to right, Rendon scored, Rengifo to second, Drury to third.7–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 6Rendon doubled to left, Ohtani scored and Trout scored.7–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 3Wallach homered to center (438 feet).7–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Fair odds
- LAA -119
- OAK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.5 – 4.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −9 | OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Suarez: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +40 Elo | LAA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.813th of 30 |
| 30th of 308.1 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.7 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 5–411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–2 LAA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.