Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Kevin SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ohtani homered to center (401 feet), Ward scored.3–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 6Ohtani singled to left, Trout scored on fielding error by left fielder Rooker, Ohtani to second.3–9
- 6Ohtani singled to left, Trout scored on fielding error by left fielder Rooker, Ohtani to second.3–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 5Drury homered to center (408 feet), Renfroe scored.3–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Ruiz reached on infield single to second, K. Smith scored, Capel to third.3–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 3Renfroe homered to left center (420 feet).2–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 3K. Smith homered to center (403 feet).2–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Ohtani grounded out to first, Neto scored, Trout to second, Ward to third.1–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Neto doubled to center, Thaiss scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Thaiss hit a ground rule double, Drury scored and Renfroe scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Drury doubled to right, Rendon scored, Renfroe to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Rooker grounded out to shortstop, Ruiz scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 57%
- Fair odds
- LAA -120
- OAK +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −2 | OAK: Luis Medina (no track record yet) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +49 Elo | LAA 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 30th of 308.0 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.3 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 6–512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 2–3 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.