Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- JP SearsPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pérez singled to left, Aguilar scored, A. Díaz to second.7–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 8A. Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Langeliers scored on error, Aguilar safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Rengifo, Aguilar safe at third on error.6–8
- 8A. Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Langeliers scored on error, Aguilar safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Rengifo, Aguilar safe at third on error.6–8
- 8A. Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Langeliers scored on error, Aguilar safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Rengifo, Aguilar safe at third on error.6–8
- 8A. Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Langeliers scored on error, Aguilar safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Rengifo, Aguilar safe at third on error.6–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–8
- 6Rendon doubled to left, Ohtani scored.5–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 5Urshela grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Renfroe scored, Rengifo out at second, Drury to third.5–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 5Rengifo walked, Rendon scored, Drury to second, Renfroe to third.5–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 45–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 35–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 4Langeliers homered to center (414 feet), Peterson scored.5–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 4Rooker homered to right center (368 feet), Ruiz scored and Capel scored.3–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 3Drury homered to left center (409 feet), Ohtani scored and Rendon scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 60%
- Fair odds
- LAA -123
- OAK +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 5.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +26 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 1.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +70 Elo | LAA 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 30th of 308.2 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.5 | Margin | +0.710th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 7–58th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 2–4 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.