Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rowdy TellezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz singled to right, Daza scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Contreras grounded out to shortstop, Adames scored, Tellez to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Tellez doubled to center, Yelich scored, Adames to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Díaz homered to left (453 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Tovar homered to left center (447 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 48%
- Fair odds
- COL -101
- MIL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.0 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +17 Elo | MIL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.828th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.927th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–4 | Road vs home | 4–927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.