Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Brian AndersonBatting1-4
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rengifo singled to left, Urshela scored, Ward to second.3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Ohtani homered to center (413 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Lamb homered to right (372 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Fair odds
- MIL -117
- LAA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −4 | LAA: Jose Suarez: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +47 Elo | MIL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–9 | Road vs home | 9–56th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 0–2 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.