Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Winker singled to center, Yelich scored.6–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 9Yelich singled to right, Turang scored.5–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 8Blackmon singled to center, Tovar scored and Doyle scored.4–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 8Díaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Castro scored, Doyle to second, Tovar to third.4–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 14–6
- 8Castro singled to left, McMahon scored and Moustakas scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 7Díaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Doyle scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Tovar scored, Doyle to third.4–3
- 7Tovar scored, Doyle to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 46%
- Fair odds
- COL -101
- MIL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.9 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | 0 | MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · COL: Connor Seabold (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +27 Elo | MIL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.526th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 6–924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–2 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.