Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Owen MillerBatting2-4
- Eric LauerPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taylor hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored, Turang to third.1–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 8Blackmon homered to right center (463 feet).0–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 30–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 7Bryant homered to left center (448 feet), Profar scored.0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Trejo doubled to left, Cron scored, Grichuk scored and Díaz scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Díaz singled to right, Bryant scored, Cron to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 46%
- Fair odds
- COL -101
- MIL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.9 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −10 | MIL: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +26 Elo | MIL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.728th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.827th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 309–5 | Road vs home | 5–925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.