Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Estrada homered to left (387 feet).7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 9Adames singled to left, Yelich scored.7–2
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 9Yelich singled to left, Wiemer scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Adames homered to left (394 feet), Winker scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Adames hit sacrifice fly to left, Yelich scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Wade Jr. singled to left, Slater scored, Wisely to second.2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Wisely singled to left, Sabol scored, Slater to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Contreras homered to left center (396 feet), Tellez scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −3 | MIL: Adrian Houser (no track record yet) · SF: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +22 Elo | SF 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 9–713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–2 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.