Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting3-5
- Jake IrvinPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pederson homered to left center (399 feet).5–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 35–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 1Abrams singled to center, Smith scored and Call scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Call doubled to right, Meneses scored, Smith to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Smith singled to left, García scored, Meneses to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Meneses singled to right, Thomas scored, García to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 4.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +17 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +37 Elo | SF 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 9–816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.