Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tristan BeckPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wade Jr. homered to center (428 feet), Schmitt scored.11–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 9Vargas doubled to right, Garrett scored, Vargas out stretching at third.11–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–4
- 8Conforto homered to right center (388 feet), Davis scored.10–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 6Sabol singled to right, Pederson scored, Sabol out stretching at first, Conforto to third.10–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 6Thomas homered to left (392 feet).10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 4Meneses singled to left, Thomas scored.9–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 38–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 3Wade Jr. grounded out to second, Schmitt scored.8–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 3Vargas tripled to right, Smith scored and Garrett scored.8–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Garrett singled to right, Candelario scored and Meneses scored, Smith to second.6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2Adams homered to left (413 feet), Smith scored and Garrett scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Smith singled to left, Call scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 46%
- Fair odds
- SF -107
- WSH +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −28 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Sean Manaea: team allows 1.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +30 Elo | WSH 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 10–916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.