San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Dominic FletcherBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fletcher singled to center, Smith scored and Walker scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 9Johnson hit sacrifice fly to left, Bart scored.6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 9Wade Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Schmitt scored, Bart to second, Wade Jr. second, Bart safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Marte.5–0
- 9Wade Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Schmitt scored, Bart to second, Wade Jr. second, Bart safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Marte.5–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 9Bart singled to center, Conforto scored, Schmitt to third.4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 9Schmitt doubled to left, Davis scored, Conforto to third.3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Schmitt homered to left (443 feet), Conforto scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Fair odds
- ARI -113
- SF +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −10 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +7 Elo | ARI 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–8 | Road vs home | 11–912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.