San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Josh RojasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Walker scored.1–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Rojas doubled to right, Perdomo scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Conforto homered to right (373 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −16 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +14 Elo | ARI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 24th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 13–1012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–2 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.