San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Dominic FletcherBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fletcher homered to right center (388 feet), Carroll scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 8Marte scored on Beck wild pitch, Carroll to third on wild pitch by Beck.2–5
- 8Marte scored on Beck wild pitch, Carroll to third on wild pitch by Beck.2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 8Flores doubled to left, Wisely scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Fletcher tripled to center, Rojas scored, Marte scored and Walker scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Herrera scored on Alexander wild pitch, Marte to second on wild pitch by Alexander, Rojas to third on wild pitch by Alexander.1–1
- 6Herrera scored on Alexander wild pitch, Marte to second on wild pitch by Alexander, Rojas to third on wild pitch by Alexander.1–1
- 1Davis sacrificed into double play, right to shortstop to first, Estrada scored, Wade Jr. thrown out at first.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Fair odds
- ARI -116
- SF +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +23 | SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 1.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +42 Elo | ARI 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.022nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 307–9 | Road vs home | 12–1012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–1 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.