Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-5
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Harper grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Sosa scored on throwing error by shortstop Bichette, Turner out at second.1–2
- 10Harper grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Sosa scored on throwing error by shortstop Bichette, Turner out at second.1–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Realmuto doubled to left, Harper scored, Castellanos to third.1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 5Belt homered to right center (394 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Fair odds
- PHI -107
- TOR +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +5 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +7 Elo | PHI 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 10–78th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.