Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-4
- Roansy ContrerasPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kiermaier homered to right (396 feet), Jansen scored.10–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Jansen doubled to right, Belt scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 9Varsho homered to right (413 feet), Bichette scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 8Santana singled to left, Hayes scored, Joe to third.5–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Jansen grounded out to third, Chapman scored, Belt to third.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Merrifield homered to left (385 feet), Chapman scored and Belt scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Merrifield reached on infield single to second, Bichette scored, Belt to second, Varsho to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Fair odds
- PIT -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +6 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Roansy Contreras: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +16 Elo | PIT 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 9–69th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–0 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.