Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4
- Rich HillPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Springer homered to center (423 feet), Espinal scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Varsho doubled to right, Merrifield scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −5 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +29 Elo | PIT 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 9–43rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.