Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting5-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Enmanuel ValdezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Corey KluberPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Verdugo homered to right center (385 feet).5–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kiermaier scored on throwing error by shortstop Hernández, Bichette out at second, Guerrero Jr. to second.5–5
- 8Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kiermaier scored on throwing error by shortstop Hernández, Bichette out at second, Guerrero Jr. to second.5–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 8Biggio scored on error, Kiermaier safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Hernández.4–5
- 8Biggio scored on error, Kiermaier safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Hernández.4–5
- 8Biggio scored on error, Kiermaier safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Hernández.4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 6Valdez homered to center (427 feet), Casas scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 13–3
- 6Duran homered to center (434 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Bichette homered to left center (396 feet), Jansen scored and Kiermaier scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Turner singled to right, Yoshida scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Yoshida doubled to left, Verdugo scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Fair odds
- BOS -106
- TOR +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.0 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −18 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BOS: Corey Kluber: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR 0 Elo | TOR 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 11th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 9–714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.