Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4
- Michael KopechPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bichette singled to right, Espinal scored.0–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 7Merrifield singled to center, Chapman scored and Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho to third.0–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Bichette homered to left (347 feet).0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Espinal singled to left, Varsho scored, Merrifield to second.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Guerrero Jr. doubled to right, Bichette scored and Springer scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Bichette singled to right, Espinal scored, Springer to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- CHW +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +12 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +66 Elo | TOR 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–11 | Road vs home | 6–22nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.